DARLINGTON, S.C. — As the checkered flag of Sunday’s marathon Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway ended the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the “Lady in Black” put her own imprint on the playoff grid.
Chase Briscoe’s surprise win gave the Stewart-Haas Racing driver an unlikely playoff spot and rendered moot Chris Buescher’s bid to point his way in, while Tyler Reddick battled through an illness and held on to edge Kyle Larson for the regular-season points championship.
With the 16-person playoffs now set, here’s a look at how each driver stacks up — plus how The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi view their chances of winning it all (or not).
Kyle Larson
Rank: First
Playoff points: 40
Wins: Four (Las Vegas, Kansas, Sonoma, Indianapolis)
Best championship finish: First (2021 champion)
Why he can win: The best driver with arguably the best team is a potent combination by itself, then when you add in the fact that Larson will be beginning the playoffs with a series-best 38 playoff points, it only enhances his chances of advancing to the semifinal round — if not further.
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Why he won’t: Too many times this season Larson has had the fastest car only to see a potential win not materialize due to a self-induced mistake (Texas, Iowa, Michigan). Should this occur again in the early rounds, his hefty playoff points cache provides a buffer. That won’t necessarily be the case in the latter rounds.
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Christopher Bell
Rank: Second
Playoff points: 32
Wins: Three (Phoenix, Charlotte, New Hampshire)
Best championship finish: Third (2022)
Why he can win: Ultimately, the NASCAR playoff format comes down to whether you can make it to the championship race at Phoenix — and then whether you can win there. Bell has shown he can do both, because the type of track on which he is best this season — shorter, flatter tracks — are the key to success. In the spring Phoenix race, Bell was 20th on the final restart and drove all the way through the field to win by 5.5 seconds. Then he reaffirmed his prowess on those tracks by dominating at New Hampshire. Bell should be considered very dangerous as a title threat this year.
Why he won’t: If Bell makes the Championship 4, it would be his third straight appearance. But his two other attempts have shown why a one-race championship is so hard to achieve. In 2022, a pit crew member got his finger stuck in the wheel during the final stop which led to extra time on pit road. And last year, Bell had a brake rotor suddenly explode, leading to a crash before the race was even halfway complete. Getting to the title race is one thing; winning it is another.
Tyler Reddick
Rank: Third
Playoff points: 28
Wins: Two (Talladega, Michigan)
Best championship finish: Sixth (2023)
Why he can win: No driver had better high-level consistency than Reddick, who over 12 summer races scored one win, two seconds, two thirds and two fourths plus three other finishes inside the top 10. That consistency propelled him to the regular-season championship, earning him a valuable 15 bonus points. If he can continue this run through the postseason, a first-ever title is obtainable.
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Why he won’t: There is no glaring reason why Reddick can’t win the championship. The miscues that defined his season a year ago have been cleaned up, with the No. 45 team becoming one that frequently puts itself in contention on a near-weekly basis. But if we had to quibble, Reddick had opportunities to win several more races than he did (two) during the regular season but struggled to close out, something that if it continues in the playoffs could be the difference between advancing and elimination.
Tyler Reddick is among the title favorites after clinching the regular-season title Sunday at Darlington. He opens the playoffs 23 points over the cutline for the next round. (Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)
William Byron
Rank: Fourth
Playoff points: 22
Wins: Three (Daytona 500, Austin, Martinsville)
Best championship finish: Third (2023)
Why he can win: After the struggles at last fall’s Martinsville race, you would have thought the Virginia half-mile track was the weak point for Byron and the No. 24 team. But then they came out and won the spring race there, leading 88 laps. Byron has wins at six of the 10 playoff tracks (all but Bristol, Kansas, the Roval and Talladega), so he’s perfectly capable of being a threat if his team has more consistent speed than it showed this summer.
Why he won’t: Byron hasn’t had three straight top-10 finishes since April and also hasn’t won since then. His uneven summer is concerning, because it’s not clear what type of team the No. 24 really is. Are they the group who can reel off three wins in eight races, as they did to open the year? Or will Byron be way off and miss the setup at times?
Ryan Blaney
Rank: Fifth
Playoff points: 18
Wins: Two (Iowa, Pocono)
Best championship finish: First (2023 champion)
Why he can win: After an uneven start to the season, Blaney came on strong during the summer; he had two wins and, with a little luck, would have had a few more. His 2023 title run proved that he can withstand the pressure that comes with racing for a championship, eliminating the kinds of miscues that often defined his previous postseasons. The playoff schedule also sets up favorably for the defending champ, with many of the 10 tracks among his very best. A second consecutive berth in the Championship 4 finale is realistic.
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Why he won’t: While Blaney, Team Penske and Ford have made considerable gains, they still don’t consistently have the same speed as the JGR/23XI Toyotas and the Hendrick Chevys. That speed gap may be too much to overcome. And it’s worth noting that there hasn’t been a repeat champion since NASCAR went to the knockout playoff format in 2014, underscoring just how difficult it is to go back-to-back.
Denny Hamlin
Rank: Sixth
Playoff points: 15
Wins: Three (Bristol, Richmond, Dover)
Best championship finish: Second (2010)
Why he can win: The No. 11 team seems to have some of the fastest cars in the field on a regular basis. Hamlin is capable of winning on a wide variety of tracks, and he should be in the Championship 4. If everything goes right, there’s no reason Hamlin can’t stand on the stage at Phoenix and finally hoist the Cup Series championship trophy for the first time in his career at age 43.
Why he won’t: Uh … have you seen this guy’s luck? There’s a reason Hamlin has said he’s “cursed,” and there are indeed random things that only seem to happen to him (Hail Melon, anyone?). The latest was losing nearly half of his playoff points due to a manufacturer error that had nothing to do with Hamlin or his team. There’s certainly a chance those lost points could come back to bite him; in fact, knowing how things typically go for Hamlin, you can probably bet on it.
Denny Hamlin after his win at Dover in April. The 43-year-old with nine top-five finishes is still seeking his first Cup Series crown. (James Gilbert / Getty Images)
Chase Elliott
Rank: Seventh
Playoff points: 14
Wins: One (Texas)
Best championship finish: First (2020 champion)
Why he can win: A year after failing to win a race and missing the playoffs, Elliott has had a nice bounce-back season that’s seen him post the second-best average and rank sixth or better in points — 23 of 26 weeks — including leading the standings three times. If he can maintain this performance throughout the playoffs, he stands a strong chance of advancing to the Championship 4 for a fourth time in five years. He owns wins on seven of 10 playoff tracks.
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Why he can’t: Elliott has had a good to very good year, but his results aren’t eye-popping — he has the least amount of wins among those deemed “championship favorites.” He also only ranks ninth in playoff points, 10th in laps led and has just a single stage win, indicators that he’s not dominating races like Larson, Hamlin, Bell and other contenders are. The third round could prove challenging, too, as both Las Vegas and Homestead are not among his best tracks. In his past six combined starts at both tracks, Elliott’s best finish is 12th.
Brad Keselowski
Rank: Eighth
Playoff points: 8
Wins: One (Darlington 1)
Best championship finish: First (2012 champion)
Why he can win: Though his cars haven’t been as fast as earlier in the season, Keselowski is the type of veteran who knows how to navigate this playoff system and make a deep run. He’s very much set on winning a second Cup Series title before his career ends (he listed it as the No. 1 thing on his bucket list in an upcoming interview with The Athletic) and is the type of driver no one wants to go up against if he has a chance in crunch time.
Why he won’t: While Keselowski ranked sixth in average finish heading into the regular-season finale and was tied for fourth in both top-fives and top-10s, he ranked only 17th in laps led. That’s a sign that while he can maximize his day with a good car, RFK Racing isn’t coming with race-winning speed most weeks. Given the challenge of making it through this playoff format without many playoff points in the bank, the lack of ability to win an important race may be the difference in making it to the championship.
Joey Logano
Rank: Ninth
Playoff points: 7
Wins: One (Nashville)
Best championship finish: First (2018 and 2022 champion)
Why he can win: There may be no tougher out in the playoffs than the battle-tested Logano, who understands how valuable every point is and has no qualms going aggressively for a win. This is not a driver the leader wants to see in their rearview on the last lap. His win-at-all-costs mentality serves him very well in this format. And while he may been mostly average during the regular season, he showed in both his title campaigns that he and his team know how to win even when they’re not at their best.
Why he won’t: Were the season to end now, Logano’s 18.8 average finish would represent the worst in his 10 years at Team Penske. This feels like a warning sign that his No. 22 team isn’t up to its customary high standards. Maybe it won’t matter, but there are a lot of question marks for this team.
Joey Logano celebrates his win in Nashville in June. The two-time champion and his team have a lot of question marks entering these playoffs. (James Gilbert / Getty Images)
Austin Cindric
Rank: 10th
Playoff points: 7
Wins: One (Gateway)
Best championship finish: 12th (2022)
Why he can win: Cindric’s two Team Penske teammates, Blaney and Logano, have accounted for the last two Cup Series titles — and in both instances, they got hot at the right time after so-so seasons overall. Cindric making it to Phoenix would be a major shock, but his teammates have shown they have the cars to make a deep playoff run. And anything can happen in the finale, where Cindric won the Xfinity Series title in 2020.
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Why he won’t: Cindric has just three top-10 finishes all season — one of those being his surprising win at Gateway, which happened when Blaney ran out of fuel while coming to the white flag as the leader. Without that victory, Cindric wouldn’t be in the playoffs at all — and there’s not much reason to think his team can suddenly find the speed to go from 19th in the regular-season standings to survive multiple playoff rounds and win the whole thing.
Daniel Suárez
Rank: 11th
Playoff points: 6
Wins: One (Atlanta)
Best championship finish: 10th (2022)
Why he can win: Suárez’s two career wins have come on a road course and a drafting track, and it just so happens the first two rounds have each of these style tracks within the bracket. So a win in Round 1 at either Atlanta — where he won in the spring — or Watkins Glen would advance him forward regardless of what he does in the other two races. Then, a similar scenario would await him in Round 2 with Talladega and the Roval his best chance to get a playoff-advancing win to the semifinals. Sure, this requires a bit of a leap of faith, but Trackhouse Racing did nearly win the championship with Ross Chastain in 2022.
Why he won’t: Without his upset Atlanta win, Suárez wouldn’t have qualified for the playoffs. The performance just wasn’t there for the No. 99 team; Suárez had only one other top-five finish all year. A lot would have to go right for him combined with a whole lot going wrong for most everyone else for him to make a deep playoff run.
Alex Bowman
Rank: 12th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Chicago)
Best championship finish: 6th (2020)
Why he can win: You can never count out a Hendrick Motorsports car. Bowman is tied for fourth in top-10 finishes and is certainly capable of making a deep run given the speed of his team. If any organization can find more pace during the playoffs at an important moment, it would be Hendrick.
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Why he won’t: Bowman led only 14 laps all season coming into Darlington, which ranks 25th in the series. That’s fewer laps led than non-playoff drivers like Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek and Justin Haley. No driver is going to make it to the final four without showing more ability to run up front than that.
Alex Bowman poses with the trophy after the Chicago Street Race in July. He’ll have a big hill to climb, but you can’t count out a Hendrick car. (Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
Chase Briscoe
Rank: 13th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Southern 500)
Best championship finish: Ninth (2022)
Why he can win: It would be a heck of a longshot and doesn’t seem possible. That said, would anyone have thought Briscoe and Stewart-Haas Racing would win the Southern 500 to claim the final playoff spot? Briscoe is good enough to point his way through a couple rounds and could win at one of the road courses. Oh, and his other career victory came at Phoenix.
Why he won’t: For all of the reasons Briscoe wasn’t a contender most of this season until Sunday night. SHR is a soon-to-be-extinct team that has already lost personnel and hasn’t run well in 2024. Expecting an out-of-nowhere title run would be wilder than the last time the No. 14 car won the championship (in 2011, when Tony Stewart won half of the playoff races).
Harrison Burton
Rank: 14th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Daytona 2)
Best championship finish: 27th (2022)
Why he can win: Every playoff needs a Cinderella, and Burton and the venerable Wood Brothers certainly fit that bill. If they win the championship, it would be the feel-good story of all feel-good stories. And while a title is unrealistic, the possibility exists that Burton could surprisingly advance out of Round 1 if he produces a strong result at Atlanta — a drafting track with somewhat similar characteristics to Daytona — and gets some luck. You never know, right?
Why he won’t: Burton’s body of work during the regular season is that of someone who’s likely to be eliminated after one round. He finished last in points among those who started every race and never was able to string together successive strong finishes.
Harrison Burton’s surprise win at Daytona last month earned him and Wood Brothers Racing a feel-good spot in these playoffs. (Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
Ty Gibbs
Rank: 15th
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: 18th (2023)
Why he can win: The speed has been there all season, with Gibbs leading the seventh-most laps and being close several times to getting his first career victory. Breaking out and tallying some wins during the playoffs wouldn’t be all that surprising, especially considering JGR has had some of the best cars all year. He’s capable of winning on any track, with the possible exception of Martinsville. As far as dark horse title picks go, Gibbs is a good selection.
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Why he won’t: It would be unprecedented for a driver who’s never won a race before to win the championship. That lack of experience is likely to be Gibbs’ undoing. Typically, a driver’s first foray into the playoffs is a learning experience, and this is likely how it will go for the 21-year-old.
Martin Truex Jr.
Rank: 16th
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: First (2017 champion)
Why he can win: Truex has just 10 races remaining in his full-time Cup Series career, but he’s still a future Hall of Famer with cars capable of winning most weeks. It’s shocking to see him seeded this low and without many playoff points to show for the speed he’s had this season, but it would not be surprising at all to see the No. 19 team suddenly catch fire at the right time — basically the opposite of how the playoffs went last year.
Why he won’t: Despite almost winning multiple times this year, 2024 has been largely disappointing for Truex. Heading into the regular-season finale, he had finishes of 24th or worse in six of the last seven races. That miserable stretch dropped him from fourth in points to ninth, and there’s few signs of suddenly righting the ship in time for one last playoff run.
GO DEEPER23XI Racing sends a resounding message at Darlington — 'We're coming'(Top photo of Denny Hamlin leading the field to the green flag at Michigan: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
